Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died.
The number of unusual deaths for this period is also higher than the typical number of annual deaths from Alzheimers, stroke or diabetes. If this pattern held through March 24, the total death toll would be about 628,000.įor comparison, around 600,000 Americans die from cancer in a normal year. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.ĭuring the period of our analysis, estimated excess deaths were 15 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. There are now excess deaths in nearly every state, with surges in states like Arizona, California, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia fueling record death tolls in recent weeks.Ĭounting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. Excess deaths have peaked three times, so far, as have deaths from Covid-19. Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.Īs Covid-19 cases have spread across the country, the geographic patterns of abnormal mortality statistics have followed. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”
That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself.
Our analysis examines deaths from all causes - not just confirmed cases of coronavirus - beginning when the virus took hold in the United States last spring. Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated. Since March 2020, about 574,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the broad devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.Īn analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, even higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.ĭeaths nationwide were 21 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Feb.
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